Get a Free Pick
  • By submitting my phone number, I proved my electronic signature and consent to receive text message offers to purchase sports picks from this site and its commercial partners at the wireless phone number I provide. To unsubscribe via email, simply hit the unsubscribe link at the bottom of your email pick. I know this is not a condition to purchase goods or services.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Blog

Detroit at Dallas Handicapping Preview (Wildcard Round)

by Jeff Allen of Jeff Allen Sports

Sunday, January 4, 2015 (1:00 PM EST)

Vegas Line at this writing: Dallas -6.5 (48)

These teams did not play this year but the Lions (-3, 51) did beat Dallas last year 31-30 despite losing the
turnover battle 4-0. In this game, Detroit rolled up over 600 yards of offense including 480 yards passing
by Stafford. This was Calvin Johnson’s epic 14 catch 329 yard performance. The Lions came back from a
10-point fourth quarter deficit and Stafford got the winner on a one-yard sneak from the one with 12 seconds
left.

Detroit: The Lions road woes are well documented are were painfully evident last week in Green Bay when
the Lions were playing for a possible bye and for sure a home field. That said, as unimpressive as Stafford
has been in 2014, he’s thrown seven less interceptions that last year and he has a legit No.2 in Golden Tate
to compliment Calvin Johnson. Joique Bell is a hard running back and Reggie Bush (when healthy which is
rarely) provides a thunder and lightning aspect. The Motown offense produced 833 less yards than last year
as Jim Caldwell pretty much turned it over to the league’s No.2 defense which was No.1 against the run.
Everything on face looks like a Cowboy slam dunk but keep in mind that the Lions ran up 31 points and 600
yards on the Pokes in their last meeting last year.

Dallas: Since their Thanksgiving home debacle vs. the Eagles, the Cowboys have been killers going 4-0 SU
and ATS and scoring 166 points. Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray have had career years behind the best
offensive line in football and DC Rob Marinelli (coached the Lions three years including 0-16 2008 season) has
gotten the most of a defense that features just one No.1 draft pick (not by the Cowboys) and has kept Dallas in
almost every game. The Cowboy offense will have to get points here and Dallas has in fact scored 31+ in six of
their last seven games, granted all against the bottom 14 scoring defenses in the NFL. Expect lots of isolations
to Dez Bryant who has been impossible to stop, especially when he can go up and get it.

Allen’s Angles

Mathew Stafford is 0-16 SU on the road in his career vs winning records
The Lions are 2-6 ATS on the road this year averaging just 10.7 ppg in their L3
The Under is 6-1 in the Lions L7 road games, the Low is 4-1 when Detroit is a dog
Detroit is 5-1 Over in their L6 off a loss to a division rival’
Dallas has been in the playoffs five times since 1992, they are 0-5 ATS

The Cowboys average 9 ppg less at home than on the road
The Over is 5-1 in the Cowboy’s L6 games vs. the NFC North
Dallas led the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 8.4 per, Green Bay was second at 8.2
The Cowboys are 9-24 as home favorites under Garrett …. is that still valid now ???
The Cowboys and lions played the first playoff game after the 1970 merger, Dallas won 5-0

Be sure to watch my HANDICAPPING VIDEO for this game.

I have the winning side and total for this game as part of my playoff package, free to all new clients: 1-800-664-8920.